Mortgage rates lost a little bit of ground last week as markets started to doubt the Fed will cut its policy rate at the March Fed meeting. Friday's jobs data also pressured rates a bit higher, showing the labor market remains resilient and making it less urgent for the Fed to cut rates to stimulate the economy.

Mortgage rates are not likely to move much higher or lower from where they start the week if inflation data comes in as expected. However, a report that shows inflation is dropping faster or slower than expected could cause rates to move up or down a bit depending on the news.

- Economic data: Consumer and wholesale inflation reports come out near the end of the week, and will help set the direction of mortgage rates for the next couple of weeks.

- The Fed: Mortgage rates continue to reflect the belief that the Fed will need to cut rates six times in 2024, although Fed officials have been saying it will be less. If markets start to waiver in the belief that the Fed will cut rates dramatically this year to avoid a recession, we could see mortgage rates creep higher.