Mortgage rates varied a bit day-to-day last week, but ultimately ended the week basically unchanged. The labor market data showed some softening with less job openings than forecast, but also showed strength with more new jobs created than expected and unemployment falling.

This week brings new inflation data and the Fed meeting, the combination of which will set the tone for mortgage rates through the rest of the year. This week is a good week to stay in close contact with your mortgage professional.

- Inflation data: Consumer inflation comes out Tuesday morning, with wholesale inflation released on Wednesday. If inflation improves more than expected it would help mortgage rates fall further, but the opposite is true if we see inflation data that fails to impress markets.

- The Fed: The Fed meets this week, and is unlikely to raise its policy rate. However, markets will be looking for updates to the Fed's rate forecast and looking for signs that the Fed is open to cutting rates sooner in 2024. Fed Chair Powell's press conference Wednesday afternoon will likely cause volatility in mortgage rates.