Mortgage rates moved slightly higher again last week, although the move wasn't much. We saw some volatility when the consumer inflation data came out, but not enough to cause rates to move too much. Consumer inflation came in as expected, although wholesale inflation was slightly higher than forecast.

This week could once again bring some volatility in rates, but this time it is because of the Fed meeting that concludes with a policy statement and press conference on Wednesday. Rates are more likely to move higher than lower after the meeting is over and during the days after.

- The Fed: The Fed is unlikely to raise its policy rate at this week's meeting, but future rate hikes will be on the table. Fed members will release their individual projections for rates through 2025, and markets could start to price in another hike to come in November at the next meeting, which would pressure mortgage rates higher now. The only way that rates will move much lower than what we see today would be if markets believe the Fed is done hiking and will have to cut rates in early 2024, which isn't likely.