Unfortunately, mortgage rates moved slightly higher last week after seeing rates fall the week before.

This week we could see mortgage rates move more erratically than normal, driven by markets' reaction to midweek inflation data and how markets think it will affect the Fed meeting next week. If the inflation data comes in hotter than expected, we could see mortgage rates move higher as markets anticipate the Fed would be more aggressive hiking rates to fight it. However, a surprisingly low inflation number could help rates.

- Inflation data: Wednesday brings consumer inflation data, which will be the last major economic datapoint before the Fed meeting next week. Thursday brings wholesale inflation data, but that data usually has a more muted reaction from markets and is less of a concern to mortgage rates.

- The Fed: Markets are currently looking at about a 40% probability that the Fed will raise rates at the November meeting for the final time this year. Markets think it is very unlikely that the Fed will raise rates at the September meeting, instead skipping a meeting like the Fed did in June.