Mortgage rates saw a lot of volatility last week, improving on Wednesday after the Fed meeting only to jump unexpectedly on Thursday when economic data came in showing the economy is not slowing down at all and a recession is unlikely. Rates rebounded a bit on Friday, but still ended the week higher.

Mortgage rates are more likely to creep higher than to improve much, but a lot depends on the jobs data that comes in this week. Rates are not likely to move significantly lower from here unless we see signs of labor market weakness and a slowing economy, which doesn't look likely.

- Economic data: There are multiple reports this week about the labor market, but Friday's jobs and wage data are most likely to have the biggest effect. Signs of a strong labor market with lots of new jobs created and low unemployment could push rates higher. Data showing labor market weakness would be a surprise.

- The Fed: With lots of data between now and the September Fed meeting, mortgage rates do not yet reflect any future Fed rate hikes. If expectations grow the Fed will continue hiking, mortgage rates will move higher.